Executive Summary
Between early and mid-February 2026, CARO conducted a targeted, elite-level outreach campaign introducing a mechanism-level research question:
Can legitimacy erosion be treated as a detectable system condition (“legitimacy stress”) that serves as an early-warning layer for pre-escalation in democratic and multilateral governance?
The campaign was:
- Non-ideological
- Non-activist
- Non-prescriptive
- Mechanism-focused
- Individually targeted
- Sent one-at-a-time
- No attachments
- No follow-ups
Total institutions contacted: 15+
Total named individuals contacted: 10+
Early responses received:
- 2 neutral, agenda-based declines
- No substantive critiques
- No negative feedback
Campaign now paused for internal consolidation.